ESPN is already reporting that the Portland Trailblazers will select Greg Oden from Ohio State in the NBA Draft tonight. However, I haven't weighed in with my thoughts, so let me tell you who I would pick.
Greg Oden is the clear choice for the number pick. Now Kevin Durant from Texas is a great scorer and athlete. Durant may indeed, as Bill Simmons puts it, be a player we have never seen before. That's just a guess though. Durant seems like a deer in headlights in front of the media and has shown the tendency to not be able to carry his team in big games (see this year's NCAA tournament). Durant didn't play in a big-time league like the Big Ten or even the ACC. His quality of opponents just wasn't NBA caliber. He's flashy and definitely can score, but I'm not sure why you'd want to build a franchise around him. At least not a franchise that hopes to win the NBA title. Durant reminds me of Tracy McGrady: a good scorer who's dunks will end up on a lot of posters and sell and lot of jerseys, but will never win. Durant is immaturity physically as well as mentally is going to lead to a lot of problems in trying to carrying his team, especially at the defensive end.
Greg Oden is ready to come in and play TODAY. He has what analyst call an "NBA body." Oden may not be the most polished offensive player at the beginning of his career, but he can come in and play defense and rebound. Those are two key elements that any championship team needs. Oden seems mature (I won't make a joke about his age) and comfortable with the media. He's played in the best college basketball conference in America and helped his team go all the way to the championship game of the NCAA tournament.There's no way of knowing how good either of these guys can be. People in the media like to call the NBA draft a crap shoot, but I prefer to think of it as poker. Greg Oden is like having a pair of queens suited. Sure, it's not the best hand, but you've already got a high pair and a chance at a flush. Durant is like having ace-jack off suit. Sure you've got a high card and chances at a straight, but if the right cards don't come up, you've got nothing. That's the way I see Oden and Durant. Durant has a bigger, as Hubie Brown would say, upside, but also the bigger chance at a flop. Take the sure thing. If you're Portland or Seattle you're already a bad team in a tough Western Conference, so take Oden and help yourself immediately.
This post will self-destruct like Sam Bowie's legs if Oden turns out to be a total flop and Durant wins six titles.
